Is there a primary care crisis?

by rcentor on March 27, 2008

Anonymous writes:

is there a primary care shortage? i read about less us graduates going into primary care. but are the total number of graduates down, if they are filled with international graduates? it seems like there certainly are more people headed to hospitalist positions so i’m going to guess yes, but i don’t actually see the volume of the decrease. i’d also like to see how many people provide primary care despite doing a specialty fellowship, and lastly how many primary care docs go to do a fellowship later.

Yes, there is a primary care crisis – try to find a primary care physician in many parts of this country.  The Massachusetts experience speaks loudly about what happens when everyone needs a primary care physician.

International medical graduates are helping ameliorate the problem, but they do not solve the problem.  Family medicine graduates continue to provide primary care, but we do not train enough family physicians.  Internists used to help, but so few of our graduates enter outpatient practice that this complement to family medicine is decreasing.  We have the combined problem of few residents entering outpatient practice and many outpatient internists leaving to either do subspecialty training or take hospitalist positions.

Some subspecialists provide some primary care, but this does not solve the problem.

Yes this is a real problem  Our best students (here I mean those who would do the best job providing primary care because of their intelligence, their ability to handle uncertainty, and their interpersonal skills) are choosing other fields.

Few subspecialists will agree with me, but I believe that we need our best and brightest doing generalist jobs (primary care and hospitalist) because these physicians must have a wider breadth of knowledge and thought process.  Our system is upside down.  Our best and brightest too often choose specialties and subspecialties which will not challenge them intellectually.  And they choose these fields because our payment system is horribly broken.

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{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }

BrianFl March 27, 2008 at 9:04 am

And yet, Medicare and even our own association (AAFP) is pushing PQRI “quality based payments” as if this will somehow help the problem.
Are they insane!

I have yet to see any reason that these “quality” measures or the expense and hassle that will be incurred by the physician will help healthcare.
I do see however, the poor, medically complicated, and elderly will have a harder and harder time finding and keeping a doctor.
does this help? well…. it certainly will save insurance companies and the government money.

Yet… no one is talking about this. Im incensed that our medical associations would back such idiocy.
What do we do when one of these “quality” measures that we push to obtain become obsolete or god forbid found to be harmful in the future? (which will happen.)
this is the practice of medicine. It is constantly changing. How can anyone justify practicing with a “it’s good for one, well it’s good for all” mentality.

Dr Dan March 27, 2008 at 9:52 am

I anticipate with trepidation the arrival of the “medical home”. It has the blessing of the AAFP and other professional groups, but in my opinion it is nothing more than the resurrection of the gatekeeper role for primary care, albeit with a payment method less heinous than capitation. Ultimately the medical home will be the point of conflict between the forces of unfettered demand (universal coverage)and the forces of rationing (unavoidable in a universal system). The PCP will be expected to do the rationing, much to the detriment of the physician-patient relationship. It will be impossible for a PCP to advocate for best care of the patient when he/she is expected to reduce utilization, as you and many other commentators (Dr. Rich, Dr. John Goodman for example)have pointed out.

Richard Fogoros March 27, 2008 at 11:06 am

DB,

Count me as one specialist who completely agrees with you.

Rich

SteveSC March 27, 2008 at 6:56 pm

Having the ‘best and brightest’ in generalist positions makes sense if they are establishing protocols to be followed by other clinical care personnel, but it does not make sense for them to be at the entry point of medical care (except part time to gain and maintain practical experience at that type of medicine). Unless the best and brightest physicians can master all possible diagnoses, and there are enough of them to cover all patients, you will always need to have some system of filtering and referral.

Service operations research supports ‘exceptions-based’ referral, i.e., common stuff gets taken care of by lower skilled individuals using protocols, and the ‘weird’ stuff gets referred to higher skilled personnel. An effective system will be like a tree, where various ‘roots’ funnel patients to the system’s ‘trunk’ where structured protocols are used to pass patients up successively smaller, more flexible (and more specialized) branches until, if necessary, they reach the most flexible leaf (who is ideally the most knowledgeable physician in the world for that particular diagnosis). Most of the best and brightest should be in the leaves, while a small group should be generalists designing the protocols for the system.

Of course, this ideal is far from current reality. Some barriers, such as organizational boundaries (this structure works better within a multispecialty group than it does across a bunch of independent practices) can be reduced by better data management systems. Others are part of the culture of medicine and will be much harder to break down. For example, in the current ‘organ-based’ specialty system, where some physicians take care of hearts, others kidneys, others brains, etc., diagnoses that are ‘multi-organ’ are either fought over (if it pays well) or ignored and passed around like a hot potato.

BTW, in the interest of a little fun, let me lob this hand-grenade: I don’t even think the best and brightest should be spending much time teaching generalists. As the ‘trunk of the tree’ gets more and more protocol driven, the value add to the system moves away from direct interaction with most generalist personnel. The best and brightest who want to be generalists can contribute the most by creating protocols and teaching supervisors because in these pursuits their time and skills are multiplied across hundreds, if not thousands, of patient interactions.

anonymous March 27, 2008 at 7:52 pm

i’m not sure massachusetts is a fair state to use as a basis. the volume of academic and specialists diminish the role of primary care docs in the community. the cost of living is absurd in many parts of the state. i certainly agree that the program seems unsustainable in its present form.

no one seems to be able to produce the hard data requested. so let’s assume that there is a shortage. is the shortage present in the sense that medicaid and other less financially desirable present people are involved in the calculation? if medicaid continues down the current road, and providers opt out or become non-par providers, will there suddenly be a surplus of primary care providers?

will the hospitals step in to fill the need? preventive screening seems to be something we can trust to physician extenders. already basically every patient in my hospital gets a pneumovax since none of them have any idea whether they have had it or not. i have to fill out a ream of forms if i don’t want my patient to have dvt prophylaxis despite documentation of h.i.t. or other clear reasons. i think we will see some insurers start to notify patients that it is time for some preventive care if it does indeed turn out to save them money.

so what we need is acute primary care physicians. if they don’t have primary care providers, they will seek out specialists in their acute care area of need. of course if the wait is six weeks that’s unacceptable, but the wait for primary care is 6 weeks in some places anyways. or they could visit the er. lest anyone think i am antiprimary care, i certainly am not. my wife is an internist. by that, unfortunately i mean increasingly she is a paper form filler outer. :(

pcb March 27, 2008 at 10:52 pm

steveSC:

where to begin.

who is deciding what the common stuff is and what the weird stuff is? If we don’t have the best and brightest doing the sorting at that level, do you think it’s going to be sorted well? How many referrals for the common stuff, in the absence of good generalists, go to the specialists? Then how much is spent working those people up inappropriately? How many of these people could be handled more efficiently and appropriately by confident, intelligent, and well trained generalists?

Protocols can help the simple cases, but medicine has become increasingly complicated. People are complicated. They don’t have diagnoses imprinted on their forehead. Even more fundamentally, they don’t have “minor illness” or “major illness masquerading as minor illness” imprinted on their forehead.
The job of figuring out what to do with “my knee hurts” or “I’m short of breath” or “I have this pain on my side” is the fundamental job of medicine. If you want the fundamentals done well, let’s make sure we have the best and the brightest focused on the fundamentals.

I think the concern is the fundamentals aren’t being prioritized, and the consequences are fairly obvious.

CT March 29, 2008 at 9:32 am

I’m a medical student and I believe we have a primary care crisis but I’m really put off by the way it has been addressed by primary care physicians.

The crisis dates to the earliest days of modern American medicine. The entire ratio of primary care physicians to specialists is awry. But this isn’t something new and I don’t think that best evidence supports a ‘worsening’ of the crisis. Anecdotes and AAFP/ACP member surveys don’t sit real strongly as ‘evidence.’ The GAO reported in February 2008 testimony before Congress,

“A decline in the number of allopathic U.S. medical school graduates (known as USMD) selecting primary care residencies was more than offset by increases in the numbers of international medical graduates (IMG) and doctor of osteopathy (DO) graduates entering primary care”

In fact the per capita growth in primary care physicians outstrips that of specialists over the past couple of years. Other, older data also supports an increase in the per capita primary care physician population during the 1990s.

The per capita primary care physician numbers are growing, not shrinking. Where’s the growing shortage?

True, we need our best and brightest in primary care. But I’ve certainly met plenty of IMGs who fit that bill and I doubt you’ll find evidence that IMGs somehow provide some lower quality of care as primary care physicians.

We have long standing primary care shortage, but the point is that a NEW and worsening shortage of primary care physicians appears a myth.

And I think that isn’t just splitting hairs. As a medical student I am actually really put off by the attitude of primary care physicians. I’m put off by the rabidness of the complaints. I’m put off by what I perceive as an ‘us versus the specialists’ attitude. I’m put off by the constant complaints over compensation. I know primary care physicians are underpaid, that they’re doing more work for less than in the past but they still earn more on average (both in absolute dollars and as a percentage of average household income) than a primary care physician in any other OECD nation.

I’m not saying that many of the complaints you hear from PCPs aren’t valid. As I said, the ratio of primary care physicians to specialists is absurd in this country and the U.S. has a long standing primary care shortage. But it just seems that in the past 10 or 15 years PCPs have started to take the situation very personally. I know there was talk of the primary care crisis before that time, but it just doesn’t appear as vehement. It’s difficult to explain such a shift in attitude by the data but it certainly is disconcerting. Were primary care physicians just not complaining enough back then? Because while raising the issue is important the level of complaining nowadays just isn’t real attractive.

I now never hear anything but complaints from primary care physicians. Online, in my Family Medicine rotation, in my Internal Medicine ambulatory care rotation all I hear is the woes of primary care. Why would I want to go into primary care when I’m surrounded by that?

This is coming from a student who truly buys into the need for an entire rethinking of how American medicine is organized to put significantly more influence on primary care, the management of patient with multiple medical problems, preventative care. But man, as a student it doesn’t seem like the primary care community makes it very enticing.

Annon March 29, 2008 at 1:21 pm

The answer was given to us by Nancy Regan many years ago. Just Say No! Just say no to insurance companies and government deciding how you practice and how much you are paid . If you can’t do that you should really complain because it is all a bunch of woe is
me whining. We are smart people with valuable skills. People shouldn’t be allowed to think our services are free. I will not apologize for expecting payment for my services anymore than my vet, my dentist, or my accountant apologizes to me – which is never.

CT March 29, 2008 at 3:50 pm

p.s.

There’s an issue in debating primary care physician shortage that I didn’t address in my original comment. I realize we’re seeing an aging population and increased primary care utilization, but estimates by think tanks about how we’ll fall short of the number of PCPs we need in 2010 or 2025 or whatever date you pick are just that – estimates.

We all have witnessed these same prognosticators trying to guess at how many physicians this country was going to need over the past two decades. “Oh, better close off some medical school spots…no, wait…quick, start building some more schools!”

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