I have written before about my concerns over a HgbA1c goal of 7.0. Others have questioned this goal even more strenuously then me. This study may lead to a new evaluation of this ill-conceived performance indicator.Diabetes Study Partially Halted After Deaths
For decades, researchers believed that if people with diabetes lowered their blood sugar to normal levels, they would no longer be at high risk of dying from heart disease. But a major federal study of more than 10,000 middle-aged and older people with Type 2 diabetes has found that lowering blood sugar actually increased their risk of death, researchers reported Wednesday.
The researchers announced that they were abruptly halting that part of the study, whose surprising results call into question how the disease, which affects 21 million Americans, should be managed.
The study’s investigators emphasized that patients should still consult with their doctors before considering changing their medications.
Among the study participants who were randomly assigned to get their blood sugar levels to nearly normal, there were 54 more deaths than in the group whose levels were less rigidly controlled. The patients were in the study for an average of four years when investigators called a halt to the intensive blood sugar lowering and put all of them on the less intense regimen.
Now we must reconsider the goal of diabetes management. This study follow the erythropoietin study which showed that raising the Hgb too high in CKD increased deaths, and the Zetia study which suggests that lowering cholesterol more than a statin lowers the cholesterol may not help the patient.
These studies have several features in common. First, the aggressive goals are at least implicitly pushed by the pharmaceutical industry. Most researchers endorsing these goals receive some funding from industry. Second, researchers have assumed that we treat patients through proxy laboratory measurements. In diabetes, we treat the sugar; in CKD anemia, we treat the hemoglobin; in hyperlipidemia, we treat the LDL cholesterol level. In all cases the common wisdom was wrong.
These studies should give caution to the “bean counters” and the measurement geeks. Caring for patients is much more complex than treating numbers. We have a responsibility to treat patients, and treating patients requires that we consider both the benefits and risk of any intervention.
Perhaps in diabetes we will now develop an encompassing hypothesis about care. Caring for diabetic patients includes treating the glucose, but our goal is to treat the patient, not the numbers. Will NQF change their approach to diabetes management? Will the VA system reconsider their performance goals?
I certainly hope that these 3 examples provide an urgent “wake up call” to those who think we can easily measure quality.
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{ 22 comments… read them below or add one }
Well, there is pretty good evidence for getting to a normal A1C as far as preventing some complications, but it has to be balanced by the risks of getting there. I actually like the ADA guidelines which say that in general we should strive for less than 7, and on the individual level as close to normal as possible without causing hypoglycemia. So for example, if I have a new diabetic and I can get him or her to a normal A1c with lifestyle changes & pushing the dose of metformin, I should. If I have someone who is brittle & on insulin, I shouldn’t shoot for an A1C <6 or maybe even <7 because I would be dropping them too often. Also, if it takes metformin, Avandia, Byetta, & insulin to get <6, then it is probably not worth it and potentially dangerous. One of the main problems is that the bean counters want 100% compliance, but what we should really strive for is an “achievable benchmark”. Maybe the goal in ideal circumstances is getting 70% of our diabetics <7 and this is how we should be judged or compared.
I really don’t find the results of this study that surprising or inconsistent with prior studies. We’ve known for a while that hypoglycemia can be bad for you, especially if you have heart disease. Just like everything else, you have to balance the risks & benefits.
dr. bob,
I’m not sure what that “pretty good evidence” is that you’re talking about. The best evidence we have, UKPDS, showed essentially no clinical benefit to getting the A1C down. Dr Roy Poses talks about it here in today’s post on the subject on his excellent blog:
http://hcrenewal.blogspot.com/
Treating the A1C down to less than 7 with drugs/insulin isn’t useful for the patient with type II DM.
What, then, should a patient with Type II DM ask their physician about on this topic? Or not ask, wait to be told to get the A1c down lower?
I agree – A1C lower than 7 is good – but get there by increasing exercise to help reduce insulin resistance. Just taking meds to pump out more insulin increases inflammation – which is not good for anyone.
Refined carbs may also be the culprit in many cases. Eat foods with lower glycemic index and increase exercise – did you really need a doctor to tell you that?
If that doesn’t get the glucose under control, take insulin – but keep up the diet and exercise!
There is clearly more to treating patients then treating surrogate endpoints, but there is good evidence that treating sugar is important. Dr. Roy Poses is correct that in the UKPDS study the macrovascular outcomes (heart attack) did not reach statistical significance, as the p value was = 0.05. However, this means that there was a 95% chance that it was important. Thus, other factors in addition to the sugar are also important for preventing heart disease. Statins clearly help, but since even diabetics with normal ldl’s (Heart Protection Study) showed benefit, there is more than just the ldl.
The problem with ACCORD is that they went too far. A goal of less the 6.0% is probably not a good idea. Though the details of the study have not been released, (though Avandia was cleared) I suspect the need for exogenous insulin to achieve these agressive goals will turn out to be a major factor. I find this very intersting, since the most recent ADA goals shun the milder, newer (granted more expensive) drugs in favor or tried and true insulin because of its efficacy (as well as lowe cost). Should we be surprised that the endocrinologist are pushing insulin for type 2 diabetes?
C. Lewin, I discuss what to tell patients on my blog, http://www.drmintz.com
I’m not sure we can blame the ACCORD results on going too far with control. Average A1C in the aggressive group was 6.4, it was 7.5 in the standard group. It’s not like people were pushed to 5.8 or something.
There was no difference in outcomes. So why again are we telling patients’ with A1Cs of 7.5 that it’s “really important” that they take more meds or insulin to get the A1C down under 7.0?
I think there is reasonable evidence for aiming for hgba1c of 7%, if other factors such as advanced age and comorbidity aren’t in play, to prevent or retard the progression of microvascular complications. ACCORD provides strong evidence that it is dangerous for Type II diabetics with heart disease, or multiple risk factors for same, to aim for an a1c substantially below this.
These weren’t new diabetics; the average duration of (known) disease was 10 years, so I suspect many of these patients needed insulin. I don’t think any of my middle-aged or elderly, late-stage diabetics have a1cs around 6, and I don’t push any to that.
Assessing the benefit is more than finding a significant p value. The actually NNT for tight control to prevent 1 additional session of photocoagulation over TEN years is 33 (ukpds). This is hardly “good evidence” that the average person will significantly benefit from many years of tight control, regardless of possible harm. Physician typically consider benefits based on abstract p-values and composite end points of questionable signficance to patients. In the language of everyday people, UKPDS showed essentially no clinically signficant benefit for the VAST majority of study participants. But A1C is burned into our brains as being essential, and a matter of major morbidity.
I wish tight control helped, but we don’t have evidence that it helps most people in a way that they would notice. And this attention to detail may detract from a lot of other important things in the physician-pt relationship, in the pts life, and may even cause harm.
I think the medical community is completely complicit in the exaggeration of heath benefits, and its no wonder that when study after study shows slightly different findings, causing us to retract are previously firm assertations.
BMI of 20. LDL less than 100. Systolic of 100. Pulse below 60. A1C below 7. I am sure there is a mythical person that will fit this criteria, but I do not know them and I certainly don’t meet this standard of health. Additionally these numbers are held as absolutes, no ranges, and no references to population averages.
For my friends and myself, fifty something’s, we are being caught up in a marketing blitz to achieve these numbers with no concern for our desires or medical need. All too often we are branded with a terrible medical condition, told we will immediately die, and then medicated.
Personality changes, inability to focus, lack of job performance, marital problems are all dismissed as the price to pay for better health. All the while the financial drivers for increasing the treatable pool of patients by pharma is ignored.
Financial considerations for treatment can no longer be used as a basis for tight controls. Long accepted in Europe a Dutch study, as reported by AP, showed that lifetime health cost for a healthy person exceeded those of a smoker or the obese. Likewise average life expectancy ranged from 77 for smokers to 84 for the healthy.
Most troubling in that reporting this study one of the first quotes by a cardiologist was “lower is better” and there is nothing here to negate pushing BP and LDL as low as possible with the use of statins. Doctors will not give up a mantra that has served them so well even in the face of new information.
I am not proposing that we throw away all of the treatment options that have been used in the past, and there is some very good data to suggest concern when numbers become completely out of whack. What I am suggesting is look at ranges and population averages. Look at the incentives for those involved in promoting treatment. (The new ADA president is a marketing guy, not a doctor)
And as has been repeated so often on this blog: Treat the patient, not to a number!
Steve Lucas
Hoist by their own petard is the appropriate expression. Any of the evidence based geeks out there listening?
I thought the study was pretty poorly reported. But hey- drama sells! For starters- the difference in death rates was what- like 250 versus 200 people, without having the numbers in front of me. However, it seems to me that those differences are hard to justify as not related to external factors, such as previous control, length of time they had diabetes but went undiagnosed, and lipid and hypertension control.
They used oral meds extensively in the study as well, one of which was Avandia. Avandia is already under fire for it’s potential link to heart disease. I’d love to see how the study would have been different if just insulin and lifestyle changes were considered, along with aggressive treatment of hyertension and dyslipidemia.
As far as I can tell, the study also didn’t consider glucose variability. If the person was on a high carb diet and spiking up to 300 post meal, but coming back to 80 fairly quickly, that’s a lot of glucose variability, even without hypoglycemia, but can still result in a good a1c. But there’s some (weak) evidence, especially from the DCCT, that variability in bgs also contributes to complications.
I’m worried that this will be taken to far. Sure, if you’re old and something else is gonna kill you off first, keep your a1c at 8%. But what about in 30 year olds? I can picture someone saying “It’s okay that my a1c is 10%, good control kills ya!”
It’s not that current A1C goals for control are worse for you, it’s that they are no better.
Certainly an A1C of 10, or sugars consistently over 200, are something to address. Living in this range might make you feel bad, might have fatigue, dizziness, intermittent blurry vision, lots of urine production, etc. It also puts you at risk for things like hyperosmolar hyperglycemia and other serious complications of very high spikes in your blood sugar, especially during illness.
But…..keeping your sugar under 200 or so (or whatever you need to do to feel normal and not have frequent very high spikes) to avoid the above issues does not mean that it’s important to obsess over your A1C. It also doesn’t mean, as the best studies have shown, that pushing your A1C down with drugs/insulin fromo 8 to 7 does anything clinically meaningful.
Keep in mind UKPDS and ACCORD look at med/insulin treatment to lower A1C to goal. It’s VERY IMPORTANT to stress, however, that if you can lower your A1C with diet and exercise (in essence, cure your diabetes yourself) you will likely do quite a bit for your longterm health. It is also important to remember that metformin is useful for diabetics who need meds, and BP/cholesterol (among other things to discuss with your doc) are important to control.
I’d like to second Steve Lucas concern, especially as it applies to policy-makers. The current mentality – any way to rich predefined metric is good and cheap, not meeting target numbers is bad and expensive – is pervasive among not only doctors but also bureacrats who couldn’t say what NNT is or explain the difference between absolute risk and relative risk if their life depended on it. This is a link to an article from Clarian Health Plan that planned to penalize employees not only for smoking, but also for blood pressure, LDL, blood glucose being over predefined metrics: “At Clarian, employees who have blood pressure that’s above 140 over 90, blood glucose levels over 120, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol over 130, or a BMI over 29.9 could be subject to the paycheck deductions. “. Since a lot of people over 50 cannot achieve all of these metrics by just diet and exercize, the plan would push a lot of otherwise healthy people to take drugs. Never mind that in an individual case this could cause more harm than good. Never mind that it is likely to be a whole lot more expensive. I wonder what the
idiots, sorry, policy-makers from Clarian can say after recent studies or even if they bother to read the evidence.Policy-makers shall let doctors figure out how to treat sick people on an individual basis and using the best evidence available. But I am concerned that otherwise healthy people are constantly pressured to take drugs to reduce the very small risk of something bad happening future at the cost of quality of life today and maybe additional harms. Really, how many healthy people over 50 are out there nowadays?
As Christine said, drama sells. And America and American medicine is in the business of selling something, not promoting health.
http://poemd.blogspot.com/2007/03/demand-supply.html
It is hard to teach the concept of the “J” shaped curve, that is, often the minimal risk for morbidity is not the lowest number, but a moderate endpoint. Instead, we extrapolate on proven benefits up higher on the slope and carry the endpoint to a near zero…linear, faulty thinking.
See “j” shaped curve, alcohol intake, cholesterol, etc….
http://www.dtu.ox.ac.uk/Slides/DTU_Slides005.ppt#257,2,Any Diabetes Related Endpoint
Slides showing fairly linear 21% decrease in mortality & complications down to A1c of <6.
I’m not arguing that everyone should shoot for <6. I’m saying that if you can get there without much effort, then you should. If you can get $500/month on Byetta, Actos, insulin etc. to get less than 7? No.
Last comment didn’t fully go through. I’m not arguing that everyone should shoot for $500/month on metformin, Byetta, Actos, Lantus etc. to get less than 7? No.
I give up. Keeps chopping out the middle of my comments.
1 more try. I’m not arguing that everyone should shoot for <6. I’m saying that if you can get there without much effort, then you should. If you can get $500 a month on Byetta, Actos, Lantus etc. to get to 6 either.
dr. bob,
Your link to UKPDS 35 refers to an association study of sugars and outcomes. It showed that higher A1Cs are associated with worse health outcomes. We know and accept that. A1C is a marker of disease. Those with higher A1Cs have worse disease, which translates to worse outcomes.
The real question then becomes, what happens if we randomize diabetics and see if those that are pushed down to a lower A1C with drugs/insulin do any better. UKPDS answered that, if you read the links provided in previous posts, and showed that it doesn’t improve clinically meaningful outcomes. And ACCORD is confirming that. So treating the marker (A1C) doesn’t treat the underlying disease and doesn’t improve outcomes.
Here’s another BMJ link with a published letter in response to UKPDS 35 saying the same thing.
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/321/7258/405#9168
Back to the home computer. Thanks for the link pcb. I’ll see if this goes through. My main argument is that it’s ok to try for <6 with lifestyle & pushing the metformin dose. Both are shown independently to lower mortality by themselves, and it’s only $4 a month. So with new diabetics I try to get them normal with low cost, low mortality meds. I don’t try to get insulin dependent & especially brittle diabetics lower as they get hypoglycemic to often which is dangerous for many patients with comorbidities. I also don’t see that its worth the expense ($500 plus per month) when you have to pull out Actos, Byetta, Lantus, etc. Hopefully this post will finally work. With the above approach, we are getting 60-70% of our diabetics less than 7 in our clinic.
The Accord study is trying to tell us that NORMAL blood sugars are bad? Too many other studies that say normal is where we need to be.
If you understand diabetes and treatment options, there is no reason why anyone in the US should have blood sugars above an A1c of 5%, without having hypoglycemia.
Here is a comment from Dr. Richard K. Bernstein, Author of the best selling book, Diabetes Solution, Diabetes Diet and the audio CDset of The Secrets to Normal Blood Sugars at http://www.diabetes911.net
The question is really, was the claim made by the NIH that “lowering blood sugar actually increased the risk of death†a valid claim and if not, what was really going on? Well, what I maintain is that the problem was in the treatment, not in the fact that blood sugars were lowered. When this study was started, the ADA very clearly mandated 60% to 65% dietary carbohydrate for diabetics. This high carbohydrate diet forced the use of industrial doses of insulin, large doses of sulfonylurea drugs and very possibly at the very least a hazard for hypoglycemia; and a great likelihood of rollercoaster blood sugars as we usually see in diabetics who are put on a high carbohydrate diet. So it looks like the likely high carbohydrate diet was at the core of the problem. Now, aside from the impossibility of real blood sugar control and indeed, although the Gina Colata article in the New York Times claims that the blood sugars were very low. They weren’t. They did not get below 6% on the A1C.
Six percent corresponds to an average blood sugar of 140 mg/dL. So the blood sugars were still quite high. What hazards were introduced? Well, first of all, we know from a number of studies that high carbohydrate diets tend to increase rather than reduce cardiac risk factors. But in this case, probably much more significant was the likelihood of weight gain. We use low carbohydrate diets to reduce weight. So if you’re going to give them high carbohydrate diets and large doses of insulin to off set the resulting high blood sugars, you’re going to be building fat. And doing that to someone who’s already at high cardiac risk is just adding to their burden, probably adding tremendously. In addition, there’s been a lot written about the adverse effects of high serum insulin levels, principally, on the vasculature. For example, high serum insulin levels increase vascular leakage, cause pathologic proliferation of the vascular endothelium, arterial stiffening, and hypertension. In addition, the obesity also exacerbates hypertension. So if you’re making people fatter, you’re making their hypertension worse.
On the other hand, there have been articles pointing out that for insulin deficient individuals, if you put them on insulin, you facilitate vascular repair. So there’s a balance. Small physiologic blood levels of insulin help the vasculature whereas these industrial blood levels of insulin are harmful for the vasculature. So simultaneously, you’re increasing hypertension, you’re making them fat and you’re causing vascular damage in a number of different ways just from the high carbohydrate and the high insulin.
So the conclusion that the study should be terminated perhaps should have been replaced with a revamping of the study so that the treatment would be changed to mandate very low carbohydrate diets and physiologic instead of industrial doses of insulin. One other point to remember is that high doses of insulin combined with high carbohydrate cause the rollercoaster effect. If you take a type 2 diabetic who already has cardiac disease, and you put them on the rollercoaster blood sugars, up and down, and up and down, you’re not doing his heart any good.
A similar situation occurred in the DCCT trial in the intensive arm, more hypoglycemia. I wrote an article that was published in the American Journal of Medicine, after the DCCT. They were complaining that they had so much hypoglycemia, even at A1C’s of 6% and they didn’t get below 6%, but approaching 6% they got more and more severe hypos. I pointed out the laws of small numbers wherein high carbohydrate plus high insulin causes unpredictable blood sugars..
Items missing in the NIH press release included what sort of diet they were on and which oral medications they were using. I’d be very foolish if they were put on a low carbohydrate diet. I’m willing to bet that they were put on an ADA diet and it was probably very high in carbohydrate.
I am assuming that they used high doses of insulin and sulfonylureas because it’s very hard to offset carbohydrate with metformin, Actos® or Avandia®; whereas sulfonylureas, are almost as potent as insulin but they work by boosting your insulin levels. If you can make insulin and you get a sulfonylurea, you’ll have very high serum insulin levels.
Dr. Richard K. Bernstein is the Author of Diabetes Solution, http://www.diabetes911.net
Since we're speculating, it may not be related at all to hypoglycemia. It may be the insulin itself and it's other concomitant side effects. Eat high fat and high protein, forget the insulin – this from 25 year T1 diabetic who has gone off insulin.
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