Validated Model Predicts Mortality in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome
An international research team has developed a prediction model that appears useful in assessing the 6-month risk of death after hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (ACS).
Using data from the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE), Dr. Kim A. Eagle, from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, and colleagues created a risk-prediction model for death within 6 months of hospital discharge. The model was developed using a cohort of 15,007 patients and then was validated in a group of 7638 patients.
The researchers’ findings are published in the June 9th issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.
The 6-month mortality rates in both cohorts were nearly the same-about 4.7%, the authors point out.
In creating the model, the authors identified nine variables that were predictive of mortality: older age, prior myocardial infarction, heart failure history, increased heart rate at admission, low systolic blood pressure at presentation, increased initial creatinine level, increased cardiac biomarker levels, ST-segment depression on initial ECG, and not undergoing angioplasty/stenting while hospitalized.
Since I care for inpatient VA patients, this article is very important. Three factors strike me as extremely important – heart failure history, increased initial creatinine level and lack of PCI during hospitalization. I plan to use this article regularly.
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