I have studiously avoided blogging about the West Nile virus. My gut feeling told me that this was not really a big issue. Not surprisingly, the press wants to make it a big issue. Thus we need some common sense - Misplaced Fear of a Viral Epidemic.

How dangerous is it? Two studies were conducted during the first outbreak in New York in areas where the disease was most prevalent. One found that 25 people per 1,000 had been infected by the virus. The other found far less infection: it tested 2,436 people and found only five who were infected. And infection does not mean sickness. The vast majority of those infected do not have symptoms, and the vast majority of those who do become ill recover fully. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, less than 1 percent of those who get infected will become severely ill, and of those between 3 percent and 15 percent will die. Other studies indicate far lower mortality rates.

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West Nile disease will likely conform to the epidemiological model of St. Louis encephalitis. It will be with us for the foreseeable future. When an outbreak does occur locally, the elderly and people with compromised immune systems should take precautions. It is likely to kill a handful of people each year. But it should not cause panic. Other more lethal mosquito-borne diseases occur in this country. We survive them — and without hysteria.

Read this nicely written opinion piece from an expert. And try not to worry to much.